Hollywood Casino 400 Betting Preview

The NASCAR playoffs are close to finding light at the end of the tunnel, with only three races left after Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400. The Round of 8 starts with this race, while the top of the Cup Series standings are very close. 

This week’s race will be run at Kansas Speedway in Kansas City on Sunday, starting at 2:30 pm ET on NBC.

Betting Preview

Toyota seems to be very popular here, having won four out of the last seven Kansas races, including the last two straight. These were by two different drivers (Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr.), and they are both currently in the playoffs.

Also interesting to point out that the eventual race winner has scored stage points in every first stage under the stage era. Then they placed in the top five in five out of the seven races in Stage 2. The interesting thing is, only one time has the eventual race winner at Kansas gone on to win a stage in that race too.

Position is very important here from the get-go. Four of the last seven Kansas winners have come from the top four of the starting lineup, while three of the last four have come from 10th or back.

Dunkel Index Top 10

The following are the Dunkel Index top 10 at having the best chance at winning:

  • Denny Hamlin 66.569
  • Kevin Harvick 70.696
  • Chase Elliott 73.551
  • Brad Keselowski 77.143
  • Alex Bowman 77.263
  • Erik Jones 77.510
  • Kyle Busch 77.971
  • Tyler Reddick 80.213
  • Auston Dillon 80.414
  • Martin Truex Jr. 80.911

Potential Winning Picks 

Chase Elliott (73.551)

Elliot has three top-four finishes if you look back at his last five Kansas starts. His last three playoff race finishes in the Sunflower State came out to be fourth, first and second, which ultimately makes Elliott an excellent candidate for a win at Kansas Speedway.

Martin Truex Jr. (80.911)

Truex swept both races back in 2017. However, in 2018, he was second and fifth, respectively. Truex was able to place sixth in last year’s playoff race to go along with finishing third back in July. He is no stranger to success here, that is for sure. 

Denny Hamlin (66.569)

Hamlin has had one of the more compelling resumes recently here with four top-five finishes in his last six Kansas starts. On top of that, he is looking to win again as he did in 2019. 

Alex Bowman (77.263)

Bowman is also another interesting pick here, with three top-10 finishes in his last four Kansas starts. Even in his worst finish in that same time span, he only came in 11th, so he is just as dangerous to steal this one as any. 

Winner of This Event

Chase Elliot arguably has one of the most competitive resumes coming into this race. Especially when you look at his recent performances here, he has one of the most dominant histories at Kansas Speedway. 

Here are the complete Dunkel ratings for this week’s event. Driver ratings are based on past performance.

1 D. Hamlin 66.569
2 K. Harvick 70.696
3 C. Elliott 73.551
4 B. Keselowski 77.143
5 A. Bowman 77.263
6 E. Jones 77.510
7 Kyle Busch 77.971
8 T. Reddick 80.213
9 A. Dillon 80.414
10 M. Truex 80.911
11 J. Logano 81.169
12 W. Byron 83.088
13 Kurt Busch 83.149
14 R. Preece 83.174
15 A. Amirola 83.613
16 R. Blaney 84.332
17 C. Bowyer 84.936
18 J. Johnson 85.038
19 C. Buescher 85.747
20 T. Dillon 85.830
21 C. Finchum 86.098
22 M. DiBenedetto 86.139
23 M. Kenseth 86.145
24 B. Wallace 87.929
25 C. Custer 88.151
26 C. Bell 89.147
27 R. Newman 92.128
28 Q. Houff 93.410
29 D. Suarez 94.390
30 J. Hunter Nemechek 95.534
31 R. Sorenson 97.717
32 M. McDowell 98.425
33 R. Stenhouse 98.834
34 J. Gase 99.430
35 B. Poole 99.759
36 C. Lajoie 101.681
37 J. Bilicki 105.666
38 JJ Yeley 106.920
39 T. Hill 113.054
40 J. Davison 115.929